Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jan 29th, 2025

Kevin Roye • January 29, 2025

Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 25 basis points to 3%, announces end of quantitative tightening.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

January 29, 2025

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3%, with the Bank Rate at 3.25% and the deposit rate at 2.95%.1 The Bank is also announcing its plan to complete the normalization of its balance sheet, ending quantitative tightening. The Bank will restart asset purchases in early March, beginning gradually so that its balance sheet stabilizes and then grows modestly, in line with growth in the economy.2

Projections in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR) published today are subject to more-than-usual uncertainty because of the rapidly evolving policy landscape, particularly the threat of trade tariffs by the new administration in the United States. Since the scope and duration of a possible trade conflict are impossible to predict, this MPR provides a baseline forecast in the absence of new tariffs.

In the MPR projection, the global economy is expected to continue growing by about 3% over the next two years. Growth in the United States has been revised up, mainly due to stronger consumption. Growth in the euro area is likely to be subdued as the region copes with competitiveness pressures. In China, recent policy actions are boosting demand and supporting near-term growth, although structural challenges remain. Since October, financial conditions have diverged across countries. US bond yields have risen, supported by strong growth and more persistent inflation. In contrast, yields in Canada are down slightly. The Canadian dollar has depreciated materially against the US dollar, largely reflecting trade uncertainty and broader strength in the US currency. Oil prices have been volatile and in recent weeks have been about $5 higher than was assumed in the October MPR.

In Canada, past cuts to interest rates have started to boost the economy. The recent strengthening in both consumption and housing activity is expected to continue. However, business investment remains weak. The outlook for exports is being supported by new export capacity for oil and gas.

Canada’s labour market remains soft, with the unemployment rate at 6.7% in December. Job growth has strengthened in recent months, after lagging growth in the labour force for more than a year. Wage pressures, which have proven sticky, are showing some signs of easing.

The Bank forecasts GDP growth will strengthen in 2025. However, with slower population growth because of reduced immigration targets, both GDP and potential growth will be more moderate than was expected in October. Following growth of 1.3% in 2024, the Bank now projects GDP will grow by 1.8% in both 2025 and 2026, somewhat higher than potential growth. As a result, excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed over the projection horizon.

CPI inflation remains close to 2%, with some volatility due to the temporary suspension of the GST/HST on some consumer products. Shelter price inflation is still elevated but it is easing gradually, as expected. A broad range of indicators, including surveys of inflation expectations and the distribution of price changes among components of the CPI, suggests that underlying inflation is close to 2%. The Bank forecasts CPI inflation will be around the 2% target over the next two years.

Setting aside threatened US tariffs, the upside and downside risks around the outlook are reasonably balanced. However, as discussed in the MPR, a protracted trade conflict would most likely lead to weaker GDP and higher prices in Canada.

With inflation around 2% and the economy in excess supply, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate a further 25 basis points to 3%. The cumulative reduction in the policy rate since last June is substantial. Lower interest rates are boosting household spending and, in the outlook published today, the economy is expected to strengthen gradually and inflation to stay close to target. However, if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada’s economy would be tested. We will be following developments closely and assessing the implications for economic activity, inflation and monetary policy in Canada. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 12, 2025. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on April 16, 2025.

Footnotes

1. Effective January 30, the deposit rate will be set at 5 basis points below the Bank’s policy interest rate to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy implementation. For more details, see the market notice published simultaneously with this press release.[←]
2. A market notice published simultaneously with this press release provides operational details.[←]

Read the January 29th, 2025 Monetary Report.

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Protect Yourself with a Pre-Approval

By Kevin Roye • May 7, 2025

There is no doubt about it, buying a home can be an emotional experience. Especially in a competitive housing market where you feel compelled to bid over the asking price to have a shot at getting into the market. Buying a home is a game of balancing needs and wants while being honest with yourself about those very needs and wants. It’s hard to get it right, figuring out what’s negotiable and what isn’t, what you can live with and what you can’t live without. Finding that balance between what makes sense in your head and what feels right in your heart is challenging. And the further you are in the process, the more desperate you may feel. One of the biggest mistakes you can make when shopping for a property is to fall in love with something you can’t afford. Doing this almost certainly guarantees that nothing else will compare, and you will inevitably find yourself “settling” for something that is actually quite nice. Something that would have been perfect had you not already fallen in love with something out of your price range. So before you ever look at a property, you should know exactly what you can qualify for so that you can shop within a set price range and you won’t be disappointed. Protect yourself with a mortgage pre-approval. A pre-approval does a few things It will outline your buying power. You will be able to shop with confidence, knowing exactly how much you can spend. It will uncover any issues that might arise in qualifying for a mortgage, for example, mistakes on your credit bureau. It will outline the necessary supporting documentation required to get a mortgage so you can be prepared. It will secure a rate for 30 to 120 days, depending on your mortgage product. It will save your heart from the pain of falling in love with something you can’t afford. Obviously, there is nothing wrong with looking at all types of property and getting a good handle on the market; however, a pre-approval will protect you from believing you can qualify for more than you can actually afford. Get a pre-approval before you start shopping; your heart will thank you. If you’d like to walk through your financial situation and get pre-approved for a mortgage, let’s talk. It would be a pleasure to work with you!

Costs Associated with Buying Property

By Kevin Roye • April 30, 2025

When calculating if you can afford to purchase a property, don’t just figure out a rough downpayment and quickly move on from there. Several other costs need to be considered when buying a property; these are called your closing costs. Closing costs refer to the things you’ll have to pay for out of your pocket and the amount of money necessary to finalize the purchase of a property. And like most things in life, it pays to plan ahead when it comes to closing costs. Closing costs should be part of the pre-approval conversation as they are just as important as saving for your downpayment. Now, if your mortgage is high-ratio and requires mortgage default insurance, the lender will need to confirm that you have at least 1.5% of the purchase price available to close the mortgage. This is in addition to your downpayment. So if your downpayment is 10% of the purchase price, you’ll want to have at least 11.5% available to bring everything together. But of course, the more cash you have to fall back on, the better. So with that said, here is a list of the things that will cost you money when you’re buying a property. As prices vary per service, if you’d like a more accurate estimate of costs, please connect anytime, it would be a pleasure to walk through the exact numbers with you. Inspection or Appraisal A home inspection is when you hire a professional to assess the property's condition to make sure that you won’t be surprised by unexpected issues. An appraisal is when you hire a professional to compare the property's value against other properties that have recently sold in the area. The cost of a home inspection is yours, while the appraisal cost is sometimes covered by your mortgage default insurance and sometimes covered by you! Lawyer or Notary Fees To handle all the legal paperwork, you’re required to hire a legal real estate professional. They’ll be responsible for transferring the title from the seller's name into your name and make sure the lender is registered correctly on the title. Chances are, this will be one of your most significant expenses, except if you live in a province with a property transfer tax. Taxes Depending on which province you live in and the purchase price of the property you’re buying, you might have to pay a property transfer tax or land transfer tax. This cost can be high, upwards of 1-2% of the purchase price. So you’ll want to know the numbers well ahead of time. Insurance Before you can close on mortgage financing, all financial institutions want to see that you have property/home insurance in place for when you take possession. If disaster strikes and something happens to the property, your lender must be listed on your insurance policy. Unlike property insurance, which is mandatory, you might also consider mortgage insurance, life insurance, or a disability insurance policy that protects you in case of unforeseen events. Not necessary, but worth a conversation. Moving Expenses Congratulations, you just bought a new property; now you have to get all your stuff there! Don’t underestimate the cost of moving. If you’re moving across the country, the cost of hiring a moving company is steep, while renting a moving truck is a little more reasonable; it all adds up. Hopefully, if you’re moving locally, your costs amount to gas money and pizza for friends. Utilities Hooking up new services to a property is more time-consuming than costly. However, if you’re moving to a new province or don’t have a history of paying utilities, you might be required to come up with a deposit for services. It doesn’t really make sense to buy a property if you can’t afford to turn on the power or connect the water. So there you have it; this covers most of the costs associated with buying a new property. However, this list is by no means exhaustive, but as mentioned earlier, planning for these costs is a good idea and should be part of the pre-approval process. If you have any questions about your closing costs or anything else mortgage-related, please connect anytime; it would be great to hear from you!